Football Outsiders
When it comes to analyzing and interpreting the stats (and their effects on fantasy football) no one does it better than Aaron and the Football Outsiders team.
If you take football seriously then Football Outsiders is your holy grail. The gang at Football Outsiders utilize advanced statistical analysis to quantify the performance and, more importantly, the expectations of players and their teams, and scrutinize the coaching and management decisions. Their knowledge, techniques and reporting are second to none. But in all their seriousness you will also enjoy their humor and wit! We are proud to introduce you to Football Outsiders and encourage you to visit their site often for their latest articles and to purchase Aaron's in-depth and comprehensive book, Pro Football Prospectus 2005, what I consider to be the "fantasy footballer's bible". Be warned: with Football Outsiders you will see football in a new light and take in a very different perspective of the game.
Four Downs: NFC South
by Russell Levine
courtesy of Football Outsiders
Sepember 1, 2005
Atlanta Falcons
Jobless
In a move that had been brewing all offseason, the Falcons released wide receiver Peerless Price in the first roster cut-down on Tuesday. Price, acquired from Buffalo at the cost of a first-round pick and a $10 million signing bonus before the 2003 season, never developed into the No. 1 receiver the Falcons thought they were acquiring.
Now I’ve made no secret of my feelings about Michael Vick’s passing ability, so it’s fair to ask the question, is it Price’s fault that he didn’t perform to the expected level? The answer: mostly.
Price earned his trade and pay raise after starring opposite Eric Moulds in Buffalo in 2002. But with the Bills, Price was never the No. 1 wideout, and rarely faced the other team’s top corner. In Atlanta, Price was paired with a cast of has-beens and never-weres (Dez White, Brian Finneran, et al), none of whom offered him any relief from the best defensive backs on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Facing better coverage, Price simply failed to get open regularly enough, and appeared to lose interest during the frequent times Vick was unable to get him the ball.
When the Falcons drafted receivers in the first round the last two years, the handwriting was on the wall. Even with this year’s top pick, Roddy White, battling a high-ankle sprain, GM Rich McKay chose to cut ties with Price now when it was obvious he was going to eventually be pushed down the depth chart by White and 2004 rookie Michael Jenkins.
It was probably easier for McKay to make the move, given that he was running the Buccaneers at the time the Falcons acquired Price.
Carolina Panthers
Flawless?
Let the Sports Illustrated cover jinx talk commence – Dr. Z has issued his NFL predictions and he likes Carolina to win it all.
If the Panthers start to suffer a rash of injuries anything like last year’s plague, we’ll know there’s something to it.
I like Z’s line of thinking. Most of the injured players have healed, giving the defensive line its bite back and returning to quarterback Jake Delhomme his top weapon in wideout Steve Smith.
Then there’s last year’s finish. Carolina went 6-2 in the second half to just miss the playoffs. We looked into how teams that finished strong, yet missed the playoffs, fared the following season, and the results suggested that there’s little connection to the next year’s results. However, the Panthers are a team that knows success, having gone to the Super Bowl after the 2003 season before injuries torpedoed last year, so I think it’s fair to suggest that last year’s finish is more emblematic of the team’s ability than the 1-7 start.
The Panthers are also well-equipped to attack their division rivals. They have the D-line quickness to contain Michael Vick, the punishing ground game to hit the Buccaneers in their weakest spot, and the … well, how do you attack the Saints, the NFL’s most schizophrenic team? Creating chaos around Aaron Brooks is a good start.
(Ed. Note: I’ve talked about this before, but with apologies to Russell, the Saints are not schizophrenic. They are actually the NFL’s most consistent team. Over the past couple years, with a couple exceptions, they’ve always lost to better teams and beaten worse teams.)
New Orleans Saints
Homeless?
The NFL rarely drops the ball when it comes to public relations, so it was a shock when Adam Schefter reported Monday on the NFL Network that the league didn’t foresee problems with the Saints playing their home opener at the Louisiana Superdome on September 18 despite the effects of Hurricane Katrina.
At the time of the report, New Orleans was under rising flood waters that continue to climb at this moment. The Superdome is currently home to anywhere from 15,000-30,000 refugees with no other place to go. The city’s mayor said on TV Tuesday night that despite a situation in the dome that is devolving towards chaos, those encamped their may have to remain for another week. There are two large holes in the roof, and the entire outer covering was ripped off by the storm. The city may not have fully restored electricity for 8-12 weeks. But no problem – the NFL thinks it can play a game their in under three.
Keep in mind, Schefter is not an NFL spokesperson, but he is employed by the NFL Network, and therefore can be seen as speaking for the league. I’m shocked the NFL allowed his report to air. The league should have said nothing, and instead offered a massive donation to the American Red Cross. To suggest that a game could be played in New Orleans in that time frame is at best premature and at worst completely insensitive. Compare the NFL’s actions to those of LSU, which came through the storm relatively unscathed in Baton Rouge. Because the LSU campus is being used as a staging area for rescue and recovery operations, the school quickly postponed its home opener, scheduled for September 3, saying it would be inappropriate to play a football game in the midst of what’s going on.
As for the Saints, they packed up ahead of the storm and are currently practicing at San Jose State in California. By Wednesday, the team announced plans to practice at the Alamodome in San Antonio. A site for the home opener has yet to be determined, but it’s looking more and more likely that the Saints may be homeless for a significant portion of the season, if not all of it. They could end up playing games at LSU, the Alamodome, Reliant Stadium in Houston, or some combination thereof.
You have to wonder how this will affect the team. Yes, football players are well paid and the storm will not impact them the way it has much of the local population, But they still have worries about their homes, loved ones, and personal property – all questions they won’t be able to answer until they can return to New Orleans. If the Superdome and the team’s practice facility in Mettarie become untenable, they will become NFL nomads for the foreseeable future. It’s a situation that could bring the team closer together, or it could destroy the season before it even starts. There aren’t too many similar examples to draw upon. Teams have been uprooted for a game or two – the Dolphins faced multiple schedule changes during last year’s hurricane season – or even for a year, such as the season the Tennessee Oilers commuted from Nashville to Memphis for every game. But no team in the modern era has faced such uncertainty as the Saints face right now.
There are also interesting connotations for the team’s future. Owner Tom Benson is currently involved in contentious negotiations with the city for upgrades or replacement of the Superdome. He’s said to be a likely candidate to pull up stakes and relocate to Los Angeles. But with his team’s home city facing such a catastrophe, public pressure may make it too difficult for him to leave now, even though the city is unlikely to find the money to make him happy when it is facing so many other problems.
Tampa Bay
Punchless
Having watched most of Tampa Bay’s three preseason games, I can say with confidence that when it comes to the Buccaneers, the status quo remains largely unchanged. The offensive line has struggled with ineffectiveness and injury. The defensive line has struggled to stop the run. The team seams to have a penchant for bad penalties that borders on the pathological.
I’m not sure how much longer offensive line coach Bill Muir can hang on to his reputation as one of the league’s finest if his units continue to struggle. Of course, it would help if the team could get him some top-shelf talent. That the Buccaneers re-signed Todd Steussie during training camp and soon had him playing with the first units, albeit due to injury, does not bode well.
Perhaps wary of the line’s ineffectiveness, coach Jon Gruden has limited the touches this preseason of his prized rookie, running back Cadillac Williams. I’m all for not exposing players needlessly to injury in the preseason, and my guess is that in the early part of the season, Williams will cede the playing field to Michael Pittman on passing downs until he proves to Gruden that he has mastered the blitz pickup.
At quarterback, Brian Griese has been workmanlike, but somewhat unproductive in the offseason, although he has had some long passes called back by penalty. Unlike last season when he came out of camp third-string, Griese is the clear-cut starter. It’s behind him that the battle is taking place. Gruden has publicly challenged Chris Simms to produce more or risk losing his spot on the depth chart to Luke McCown, who has looked good playing against third-string defenders.
If there’s one bright spot for Tampa Bay, it’s that the team looks to have solved its kicking woes. Both Matt Bryant and Todd France have been steady with field goals and deep with their kickoffs. The competition won’t be decided until after the final preseason game. Other battles still in play are the fourth, fifth and sixth receivers, and the starting free safety spot, where former Super Bowl MVP Dexter Jackson is battling to hold off second-year man Will Allen.
There were no real surprises in the first round of cuts, and the only noteworthy player to be let go was running back Charlie Garner, officially closing the door on another ill-fated signing of 2004.
Every Play (Doesn't) Count
by Michael David Smith, with Mike Tanier, Ryan Wilson, and Russell Levine
courtesy of Football Outsiders
August 16, 2005
The games don’t count in the preseason. We all know that. But they’re still useful in identifying how well players on new teams seem to be fitting in, which rookies seem poised to make an impact, and whether players coming off injuries look fully healed. So our observations here aren’t intended to tell you who will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February, but they might give you some information about players you wouldn’t have found elsewhere.
Before we begin, observations not about the players on the field but about the men in the booth and the women in the commercials: What is with the Bridgestone Tire ads? Now, good-looking girls have to bump ‘n’ grind to sell tires? And we occasionally have fun around here at the expense of the network television announcers, but in viewing preseason games, it must be said that some of the local guys make Patrick, Maguire, and Theismann look like Summerall and Madden in their primes. Would it kill these people to learn even the most rudimentary rules, like no coaches’ challenges in the final two minutes of the half, and no challenging a fumble if the on-field official ruled the play down?
With that, on to the players:
AFC
Baltimore
On the second play of the game, Kyle Boller stared down Derrick Mason on a slant, hesitated, and was promptly picked off by former Raven Edgerton Hartwell. Boller finished five-of-nine, but was the victim of several drops – one of which was in the end zone by Clarence Moore.
Moore started because rookie Mark Clayton was unsigned the first week of training camp. The Ravens looked to exploit Moore’s six-foot-six frame, but he could be 10 feet tall and it wouldn’t change the fact that he had a case of the “drops” on several plays and also short-armed a ball on a slant pattern. Boller did complete a 30-yard jump ball to Moore early in the 2nd quarter.
The Ravens did the right thing by matching the offer Cleveland made Chester Taylor this spring. Taylor is a capable backup who had his way with the Falcons front seven for most of the first half. He finished with 55 yards on eight carries.
This is supposed to be Randy Hymes’s breakout year. Unfortunately for the Ravens, the coming out party wasn’t scheduled for week one of the preseason. Hymes dropped a touchdown pass from Anthony Wright in the third quarter, but finished with three catches for 51 yards.
The Ravens weren’t bluffing about the 46-defense. They played lots of five- and six-man fronts, almost always had eight in the box, sometimes more. And they were blitzing heavily with linebackers, safety Will Demps, and even Deion Sanders. There were some major lapses in coverage that the Falcons couldn’t quite capitalize on, but Buddy Ryan’s defenses never looked good early in camp (and sometimes struggled in the first week or two as guys figured out their roles).
The 46 gave the Falcons offense some problems early in the game primarily because Rex Ryan didn’t hesitate to send seven and eight players at a time. When the unit wasn’t harassing Michael Vick, it was stifling the running game near the line of scrimmage.
Buffalo
J.P. Losman is as athletic as advertised, appears to read the field well, and isn’t afraid to dump the ball off. But he doesn’t set his feet in the pocket, does lots of hand-patting with the ball, and delivers it too late. He appears to be double-clutching before releasing, giving the defense time to converge. He wasn’t effective at all until the second string came in.
Cincinnati
Much like Boller, Carson Palmer’s first pass of the game ended in an interception. The pass was intended for Chad Johnson downfield, but was underthrown. Palmer also underthrew Johnson on a deep pass later in the quarter. Palmer finished four-of-11 for 37 yards.
If Chris Perry can stay healthy, he’ll make Marvin Lewis look like a genius (and everyone else look like doubting idiots). Perry showed surprising quickness running the ball between the tackles and he’s very comfortable catching passes coming out of the backfield. He had nice receptions for nine and 16 yards.
The knock on receiver Chris Henry coming out of West Virginia was that he had first-round talent but T.O.-like behavioral issues. He had two receptions against the Patriots, one of which was a three-yard TD catch. Depending on how the rest of preseason plays out, he could replace Peter Warrick on the depth chart.
Odell Thurman was a 2005 second-round pick who was named the starter during minicamp. Not surprisingly, he showed great athleticism, but often got sucked in on misdirections, or on running plays to the outside he would find himself too close to the line of scrimmage and unable to pursue the play. Still, he made a lot of tackles, proved very effective at shedding blockers, and showed great closing speed.
Cleveland
This looked like just about the worst collection of offensive skill-position players in the league. None of the quarterbacks played well, and when William Green is your top back you really don’t have a top back.
Denver
The cliché about every back being able to succeed behind the Denver offensive line isn’t entirely accurate, but it sure will get some credence if Ron Dayne puts up many more 11-carry, 56-yard games. Unfortunately for Denver fans, Tatum Bell had eight carries for 11 yards and Mike Anderson had six for 12.
Houston
The Texans are using DT Robaire Smith as a fridge fullback. The results on one goal-line series weren’t impressive: Domanick Davis got stopped four straight times from the one-yard line. Credit the Broncos for getting good penetration and sealing off any cutback lanes on those plays.
Indianapolis
Rookie defensive back Marlin Jackson is a hitter. The Colts’ defense needs that.
Jacksonville
Byron Leftwich was sacked four times. Jack Del Rio, please: It’s the preseason. Get him out of there!
Kansas City
The Chiefs’ offensive line looks as good as ever. Those guys have to get old some day, don’t they?
Miami
Ricky Williams actually looked pretty good in the second preseason game after being shut down in Canton. Once Ronnie Brown is on board and Williams has served his four-game suspension, though, it’s hard to see why Nick Saban would even want to find a spot for him on the offense.
New England
Logan Mankins looked good. On running plays he routinely pancaked the defensive tackle, and was able to get to the second level and sustain the block (usually on Odell Thurman). One running play that sticks out went to the left side, Mankins blocked the defensive tackle, got to the second level on Thurman, who shed the block and made a great tackle on the ball carrier after a three-yard gain. Great football on both sides. Mankins did get blown up by John Thornton of the Bengals on one sweep.
The Patriots started Tom Ashworth at right tackle. Ashworth looked very good as a run blocker, climbing out to the second level well. He’s fast. He gave up some ground when pass blocking, though.
Matt Cassel hadn’t seen the field since high school, but he showed signs of poise, a good arm, but was quick to pull a David Woodley (three-step drop, glance downfield, tuck and run).
New York Jets
The defensive line is a concern with Jason Ferguson in Dallas, John Abraham unsigned, and Dewayne Robertson’s knee hurting. Sione Pouha, a rookie defensive tackle, got a lot of playing time and didn’t do much. He was often single-blocked, even against the second-string Lions offense.
Oakland
LaMont Jordan caught four passes in the first nine minutes of the game. It’s fair to say the Raiders want to get him involved in the passing game this year.
Pittsburgh
Charlie Batch and Brian St. Pierre both look like capable backups to Ben Roethlisberger. It seems likely that Tommy Maddox would be available to any team willing to trade for him.
San Diego
Philip Rivers’ footwork is awful, particularly from under center, where he takes forever to get his drop and looks bad doing it. He doesn’t have his feet set when he throws and appears to rush both read and throw. He looks better out of shotgun snap. In fairness, he was playing with mostly second-stringers against a mostly first-string Pack defense. Once the backups were in, Rivers threw a nice pass for a TD.
Nate Kaeding missed three field goals. See, Jets fans? Highly drafted kickers don’t often turn out the way you think they will.
Toniu Fonoti looked dominating. He might be the best guard in the league right now.
We know it’s preseason for the officials, too, but it’s hard to imagine how Reche Caldwell didn’t get called for holding when he nearly ripped the jersey off a Packers defender right in front of an official.
Tennessee
Steve McNair looked surprisingly mobile. He’s been banged up so often that it’s hard to remember that there was a time not too long ago when people thought of him primarily as a runner.
NFC
Arizona
Kurt Warner looks very comfortable. New offensive coordinator Keith Rowen comes from Kansas City, where the Chiefs ran an offense similar to the one Warner ran in St. Louis. Rookie corner Antrel Rolle struggled. Safety Adrian Wilson looked very good. Punter Scott Player’s facemask is a disgrace. It looks like a big ‘U’ hanging below his chin. NFL rules require every player to wear a facemask, and it’s hard to imagine how Player’s facemask qualifies.
Atlanta
Mike Vick’s interception against the Colts demonstrated the same problems he showed throughout last season. He was sitting in the pocket with plenty of time to pass, and he had his slot receiver open over the middle for an easy first down completion, but he overthrew him for an interception. Vick looked good when rolling out but bad in the pocket – just like last year.
Falcons rookies Chauncey Davis and Michael Boley looked good, getting back-to-back sacks and generally appearing explosive. Boley also had an interception.
The interior of the Falcons’ line, Mookie Moore, Todd McClure, and Kynan Forney, looked very solid. They’ll be opening a lot of holes for Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett.
There wasn’t much of an opportunity to see exactly what Michael Jenkins (2004 first round pick) and Roddy White (this year’s first rounder) could do. Jenkins had four passes thrown in his direction and the result was four incompletions. White fared a little better – he hauled in four receptions for 29 yards, but left in the fourth quarter with an ankle sprain.
Carolina
The Panthers dominated the Redskins in just about every respect. Chris Weinke (remember him?) played very efficiently.
Chicago
Charles Tillman had a great diving interception, but he also struggled in coverage against Isaac Bruce. Tillman was a very good-looking rookie, but he hasn’t looked comfortable since Lovie Smith took over in Chicago.
With Rex Grossman lost for several months, Kyle Orton could end up the starter. The former Purdue star showed excellent command, albeit against second-teamers, but anyone who recalls Chad Hutchinson under center last season knows that Orton has a shot to be the guy.
Dallas
Tony Romo looked better than Drew Henson. Bill Parcells has always seemed as though he can just barely hide his contempt for Henson, and if Drew Bledsoe goes down, it’s most likely that Parcells would turn to Romo next.
Detroit
The loss of fullback Cory Schlesinger hurt, but backup Will Matthews looked like a very capable blocker and should make the team as an undrafted rookie.
Green Bay
The Packers are trying to find a new pair of guards, and they did a lot of pulling, which was the specialty of the now-departed Mike Wahle. Rookie seventh-round pick William Whitticker started at guard and played well, but it’s hard to imagine that a seventh-round pick could step in and be an adequate replacement for a couple of Pro Bowl-caliber players. Adrian Klemm looked sluggish at times but did get out to the second level and make some blocks on straight-ahead plays. Klemm stayed on with the second string to get some extra work. Matt O’Dwyer played with the second unit. Kevin Berry showed that he’s an adequate straight-ahead blocker. He can get beaten to the edge, and he got a dumb holding penalty on a screen pass when he should have been releasing downfield.
Aaron Rodgers has the perfect Jeff Tedford form, holding the ball at his ear, but in his first game he didn’t make reads at all.
Minnesota
Nate Burleson had no trouble running through the Chiefs’ secondary. He’s the guy the Vikings will count on most now that Randy Moss is gone, and he’s off to a good start, but the secondaries he faces won’t all be as easy as the Chiefs’.
Mewelde Moore was called for a facemask on a play when he ran the ball – when was the last time you saw that? That was a play that showed exactly why Moore is a good young running back, but also why he lasted until the second day of last year’s draft: He has the shiftiness to get into the open, but he has no straight-line speed and can be caught from behind.
New Orleans
Saints cornerback Jason Craft got beat badly for one TD and burned for another long gain by some nobody. He’s done, and the Saints will be in trouble if he has to play.
Rookie tackle Jammal Brown looks like a strong drive-blocker.
Keep an eye on second-year linebacker Coby Bockwaldt, who had a sack of Matt Hasselbeck and looks like a smart and athletic player.
New York Giants
Jesse Palmer looks like he should stick with reality TV. He went into camp as the No. 2 behind Eli Manning, but now it’s questionable whether he can beat out Tim Hasselbeck and Jared “the Hefty Lefty” Lorenzen just to make the team.
Philadelphia
The Eagles always have good special teams, but it has to be a bit worrying that they allowed both a punt return and a kickoff return for touchdowns against Pittsburgh. Ike Reese, one of the top coverage players in the league, left Philly for Atlanta in the off-season.
St. Louis
The Rams #2 offense vs. the Bears #2 defense was a mismatch. Wide Receivers like Kevin Curtis and rookie Dante Ridgeway feasted on inexperienced defenders in a super-vanilla zone defense. Jamie Martin looks like a good system QB. Curtis really works underneath well; I may have to eat my PFP words about Rams slot receivers because he’s gonna cause problems this season. Ridgeway is big and has good hands.
San Francisco
If the preseason means anything, it’s hard to see how Alex Smith could start over Tim Rattay.
Seattle
Seneca Wallace is a terrific athlete who played very well. He’ll never take the field unless Matt Hasselbeck gets hurt, though, because Mike Holmgren is adamant that he won’t use Wallace as a receiver or running back in the manner that the Steelers have used a similar player, Antwaan Randle El.
Tampa Bay
Backup running back Earnest Graham showed surprisingly good explosiveness, as did Derek Watson. With Carnell Williams and Michael Pittman around neither is likely to see the ball much, but each is worth another look at least.
Washington
Of the three quarterbacks, Mark Brunell looked the best. But really, who can predict anything about the Redskins’ quarterback situation? Their passing game was horrid last year and there’s not much reason to believe it will be better this year.
Four Downs: AFC South
by Ned Macey
July 27, 2005
courtesy of
Football Outsiders
Houston Texans
An Improved Offense?
The Texans are entering year four of existence, and in many ways this is a make or break year for their initial management/coaching group. In the off-season, said group made moves based on the premise that they had an emerging, young offense that would be playoff quality. The entire off-season was spent retooling the defense, making it younger and faster. The offensive line remains largely unchanged and below average. The faith of the team, therefore, must lie in the skill position players.
In the
first AFC Four Downs of the off-season, I took a look at David Carr and hypothesized that he is improving but is not ultimately destined for stardom. Basic competency at quarterback was a winning recipe for each Super Bowl winner between 2000 and 2002, so Carr may not be the solution, but he is also not the problem.
Running back Dominick Davis is a current FO favorite, projected for 1429 yards. His top 4 comparables by similarity scores (
explained here) include Ricky Williams before his one good season, Thurman Thomas, Tony Dorsett, and Marcus Allen before his best season. He should be among the most productive backs in football.
That leaves us with the wide receivers, who warrant a deeper look today. The threesome of Andre Johnson, Jabar Gaffney, and Derick Armstrong does not evoke images of the Rams’ or Colts’ receiving corps, but these players are actually very solid. Johnson has developed a reputation as a young star. Gaffney is no Reggie Wayne or even Drew Bennett (to keep with the AFC South theme), but he quietly posted a DVOA (
stats are explained here) of 20.9% last season, good for 21st in the league. Armstrong, in his second year out of Arkansas-Monticello via the CFL, was the #4 receiver a year ago, but he lit up DVOA thanks to a remarkable 74% catch percentage while still averaging 14.3 yards per catch. (
2004 WR stats here.)
To anticipate where these receivers are headed this year, let us return to similarity scores. With Johnson, you have a player who in his second season caught 79 balls for 1142 yards. Unfortunately, much of that was due to the 137 passes sent his way, which combined with a meager 6 touchdowns gave him a DVOA of only 4.5%, 44th in the league. From his comparables, Johnson appears headed for a repeat season but not a further break-out. Given his big numbers, most of his top comps were older players. Looking at people who were most similar after two seasons, you get a who’s who of almost stars. Chris Collinsworth, Andre Rison, Ernest Givens, Bill Brooks (the Colt/Bill), and Darrell Jackson top the list. Of the ten most similar, only Rod Gardner and Brian Blades saw a major drop-off. Surprisingly, given the conventional wisdom about third-year wide receivers as break-out candidates, only Al Toon actually improved on his second year numbers. Based on these comps and his mediocre DVOA, Johnson is unlikely to be the source of major improvement.
Gaffney is entering his fourth season, and like the Texans has improved from dreadful to respectable during that time. His rise in DVOA from -15.7% to 5.5% to 20.9% shows he is clearly improving, but his comps leave a little to be desired. Nobody on the list had what could be termed a “breakout” season the next year, with the best year being turned in by Michael Timpson catching 74 balls for 941 yards for the Patriots in 1993. The highest comparable is Shawn Jefferson through the 1994 season, and this is one I rather like. Going into his fourth year, Jefferson had never topped 400 receiving yards, but over the next seven, he was never under 600 or over 850. Gaffney has the potential for that kind of workmanlike effort, but expecting vast improvement on his 41 catch, 632 yard campaign is wishful thinking.
Finally, we have Armstrong, leader in DPAR among those who saw fewer than 50 passes. That distinction has gone in past years to such luminaries as Charles Lee, Marc Boerigter, Brian Finneran, and a slightly more encouraging name: Ricky Proehl. Armstrong’s comparables all posted poor stats the next season except for Dez White who had 656 yards for the 2002 Bears, thus leading some fools to take a flyer on him in fantasy football the next year (not that I’m bitter). Armstrong’s third biggest comparable player is Donald Driver through the 2000 season. Driver’s big breakout was still two seasons away, but Armstrong in 2004 had a much higher DVOA than Driver in 2000 (-3.2%). The next year Driver’s DVOA of 22.7% in limited opportunities presaged his breakout 2002 campaign. With Bradford still on the roster, Armstrong still has to win the third receiver job, but he represents the biggest chance for improvement in the Texans’ passing game.
Overall, the offense looks like it will take a small step forward. Whether or not Carr can be protected will be a major issue, but his best protection could come from Dominick Davis’s emergence as a star player. The team had an overall DVOA of 0.2%, good for 14th in the league. The pass offense ranked 16th in the league with a 1.4% DVOA, while the rush offense was 17th at -1.0%. That would seem to have them in a good spot. However, since their offense was closer to 25th in the league than tenth, the small improvement provided by Davis may not be enough.
Indianapolis Colts
Much Ado About Nothing
The Colts’ off-season has filled headlines, keeping Indianapolis beat reporters and your trusty AFC South Four Downs writer fairly busy. In the end, almost nothing has changed. The Colts entered the off-season with the prospect of losing Edgerrin James (or at least facing a protracted holdout), guard Rick DeMulling, tight end Marcus Pollard, and three defensive starters. As they enter camp, James is franchised and indicated he intends to report. DeMulling and Pollard have moved north to Detroit, but of the anticipated defensive defections, only Idres Bashir did not re-sign. Every Colt who had a rushing attempt and everyone who had a reception except for Pollard is in camp. Every player who made a tackle in the playoff loss to New England except Bashir is in camp. Certain spots are up for grabs, the battle for middle linebacker between Gary Brackett and incumbent Rob Morris bears watching, but the rest of the team is the same.
Also filling headlines were legal troubles suffered by the Colts’ secondary. In the same week, safety Mike Doss was arrested for firing a gun in public, while cornerback Nick Harper was picked up for domestic abuse. An organization does not want its players in trouble with the law, but the on-field impact will be minimal. Doss was suspended for two games, but as the first two opponents on the Colts’ schedule are Baltimore and Jacksonville, the impact of losing a safety will be limited. The move could actually help by forcing the Colts to address their lack of safety depth early in camp, sliding Joseph Jefferson to the position from day one. Harper’s arrest falls in the category of Extraordinarily Stupid Career Move given he attracted no interest on the free agent market and watched the Colts spend their first two picks on cornerbacks. If second round project Kelvin Hayden shows the potential to contribute this season, Harper, a starter last season, may be shown the door before the season starts.
With all these news headlines helping Colts’ fans pass the time, the single biggest event that likely has no long-term impact on the team is the agreement reached between the team and the city for a massive handout … I mean a new stadium. I am no expert on NFL finances, and I do not even play one on the Internet, but publicly funded stadiums strike me as an absolute scam. The vacant market in Los Angeles is used to scare every small-market team into believing that their team, unable to ‘compete’ in current conditions, is on the verge of moving. The owner always says he is committed to the current city but acknowledges that the current conditions are tough. The league offers Super Bowls to teams that build new stadiums. Inevitably the city caves and builds for an owner infinitely richer than Peyton Manning a spanking new revenue-generating machine.
The Colts do not need the stadium to compete. They have gone 63-33 since 1999. They gave Peyton Manning a record signing bonus before any plans were finalized on the stadium. They play in the NFL, the league where billionaires suddenly believe in socialism. Bob Kravitz, columnist for the
Indianapolis Star,
wrote an apology a couple weeks ago for not having argued against the stadium when it was still in doubt. It is worth reading to see the choices that were made to guarantee a continued cash cow for the Irsay family and two weeks of jokes about “India-no-place” by overweight football columnists upset they are spending two weeks of winter in Indianapolis instead of San Diego.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Who’s Carrying the Football?
The Jaguars enter camp this season with a major question: running back Fred Taylor’s health. Our own injury expert Will Carroll
wrote that Taylor: “should be ready for the start of training camp … There’s little chance he’ll make it through the season intact.” I’ll leave the injury analysis to Will, but such a prognosis provides a serious problem for the Jaguars. They flirted with Travis Henry of the Bills before he was shipped to the Titans. With no outside help likely to arrive, what sort of running game can we expect from the Jaguars?
Taylor’s increasing age led the Jaguars to invest a fourth round pick in 2002, a second round pick in 2003, and another fourth round pick this season on running backs. These picks have added LaBrandon Toefield, Greg Jones, and Alvin Pearman. Despite Taylor’s reputation, he has only missed two games in the last three years, so we have a limited sample to see the success of these players. So far, the returns on Toefield and Jones have been mixed at best. According to scouts, Pearman’s future is not as an every-down back.
Toefield comes from an SEC school, often a good indicator of future success, and after his rookie season he appeared to be another data point in our SEC RB theory.
In limited time, he posted a solid 3.7% DVOA, and as a receiver, he had a 55.1% DVOA in the 16 passes directed at him.
Last year, in roughly the same number of carries, he declined to -11.5%. With more focus on him in the passing game, his DVOA as a receiver was 1.3%. In Toefield’s defense, the Jaguars played without tackle Mike Pearson last year, and their team rushing DVOA declined from 0.1% to -8.4%. With Pearson back and the addition of Khalif Barnes, Toefield could recapture the promise he exhibited in his rookie season.
Jones was added to be a short yardage specialist, but during a difficult rookie season he was basically converted to a fullback. Jones was dreadful when he did carry the ball, posting a DVOA of -24.2%. Not much coming out of Jacksonville indicates that he is likely to be considered as a feature back, and his struggles last year make that probably a sound decision.
Pearman is an undersized rookie out of Virginia who is more shifty than fast. He seems better suited to be a third-down back.
Add it all up, and what do you get? A gigantic question mark at the running back position. In this situation, many people have criticized them for not closing the deal with Henry, but if you read down to the Titans’ section, you see that they avoided acquiring a below-average back. I’m guessing that Toefield, even coming off last year’s disappointing season, is capable of providing basically what Henry offers.
TO and Javon Walker Are Not the Only Greedy Ones
The Colts are not the only ones following the NFL trend of squeezing millions of dollars from local government. The Jaguars – sitting comfortably in a relatively new stadium – have decided to start asking for more money. Owner Wayne Weaver, a notorious cheapskate, is starting to make rumblings about being unable to compete in the Jacksonville market. The
Florida Times-Union went in-depth into the Jaguars financial situation, and while their direct comparison to Green Bay is probably not exactly correct, I imagine it is in the ballpark. What they found is that if the Jaguars are losing money, it is not much.
Everybody agrees that the Jaguars were extremely profitable from the team’s inception in 1993 through 1999. After that, the team started to make less money before claiming they lost money the last several seasons. Much of this is because of a decline in ticket sales, from second in 1999 to 27th in 2003. Weaver is blaming this on the market, and Jacksonville is the second-smallest market in the NFL. I think the reason might be that the Jaguars are 33-47 over the past five seasons, only exceeding .500 last season. Weaver, who got a free stadium in 1993, somehow believes that he should be guaranteed to make money even if he is fielding a sub-standard team. It must be tough to have an investment that makes you bundles of money when your product is good but causes you minor losses when your product is poor.
Tennessee Titans
O Henry
The Titans from all appearances are in a rebuilding mode, but they made the most aggressive move of the post-draft period, sending a 2006 3rd round pick to the Bills for Travis Henry. Aaron
discussed at length Travis Henry’s inadequacies before the trade, but I cannot leave it at that. I have nothing against Henry or any member of his family, but the way this trade has been discussed in the mainstream media as a boon for the Titans has driven me to desperate measures.
Our position on Henry is summed up in our player comment for him in
Pro Football Prospectus 2005 (
now shipping … hint, hint) written obviously before his recent trade to the Titans: “The Bills’ brass said they couldn’t figure out why no team would offer them a high draft pick for Henry. Here’s a clue, fellas: He’s no good. For three years all we heard was that if Henry could start to hang onto the ball he’d be a very good runner. Then in 2004 he held onto the ball and still stunk. No one wants to pay high NFL currency for your backup, Buffalo.”
Well, we were wrong about one part, as Tennessee is willing to pay what is likely one of the top 75 picks in the draft for Henry. The Titans have not seemed to grasp one of our core tenets: the fungible nature of the mid-level running back. Their image of Eddie George as a “warrior” has somehow blinded them to the fact that running backs are allowed to actually provide value above average. Take a look at Tennessee’s rushing DVOA over the past five seasons. These numbers are for a team that has won 48 games during this period.
| Year |
DVOA |
Rank |
| 2004 |
-5.4% |
21 |
| 2003 |
-13.5% |
30 |
| 2002 |
10.1% |
10 |
| 2001 |
-14.2% |
26 |
| 2000 |
0.4% |
10 |
The 2002 numbers were greatly aided by Steve McNair’s rushing from the quarterback position, where he posted a 42.3% DVOA in his rushing attempts. Looking at the Titans’ feature backs the past five seasons, only once have any of the backs been even slightly above average, with George in 2002 posting a whopping 0.2% DVOA.
| Year |
Player |
DPAR |
Rank |
DVOA |
Rank |
| 2004 |
Brown |
5.7 |
34 |
-7.7% |
38 |
| 2003 |
George |
7.8 |
32 |
-9.0% |
37 |
| 2002 |
George |
20.5 |
15 |
0.2% |
25 |
| 2001 |
George |
-27.2 |
47 |
-35.7% |
47 |
| 2000 |
George |
20.9 |
10 |
-2.6% |
21 |
Travis Henry fits in perfectly with the above line. Stealing a chart posted by Aaron in his
AFC East Four Downs:
| Year |
DVOA |
Rank |
DPAR |
Rank |
| 2004 |
-10.6% |
39 |
1.4 |
41 |
| 2003 |
-7.3% |
36 |
9.5 |
29 |
| 2002 |
-9.1% |
39 |
7.6 |
32 |
| 2001 |
-21.8% |
42 |
-8.3 |
43 |
Even Henry’s conventional statistics are nothing to write home about. He was a full-time starter for two seasons, topping out at 1438 yards and 4.4 yards per carry in 2002. The raw totals were good for fifth in the league that season, a seemingly impressive total. But over the past three seasons, fifteen separate backs have rushed for more than 1438 yards in at least one season, and all except Rudi Johnson last year averaged more than 4.4 yards per carry. If Henry is a top 10 back, what does that make these other 13 backs? Is Henry a top 10 back because he was so impressive last season, struggling to 326 yards on 3.5 yards per carry? It is certainly not because of his versatility, as Henry’s career high receiving DPAR is only 2.8, or just below what Patrick Pass contributed to the Patriots last year.
Still, the major media continues to fawn over Henry, including some of the best writers around. The venerable Dr. Z calls him
“a terrific runner” and says he would give up more than a third rounder. Peter King spent the off-season touting Henry and following the deal
wrote: “I’m amazed, and I do not use that word lightly, that someone with a running back need didn’t gladly pay a second-rounder for the guy.” Len Pasquarelli
called the acquisition “a terrific one for the Titans,” questioning only the backfield by committee approach, not Henry’s talent.
Travis Henry is not a useless player by any stretch of the imagination, and one can imagine a committee with him and Chris Brown being productive from a yardage standpoint (if extremely fumble-prone). We support running back by committee as a way to save wear and tear on backs, and early reports from the Titans seem to indicate they agree. The Titans also locked him up for the next several years at a not exorbitant salary. Thanks in large part to supplemental picks, the Titans have drafted 24 players the past two seasons, including nine in the first three rounds. I assume that they think they have enough young players going forward making next year’s third round pick less valuable to them. Still, Henry is not worth the price they paid. He’s a mediocre back who the major media seems to think is something special. A third round pick is not the end of the world, but it was too much for Henry.
